There are already many expert articles explaining why Kerala re-elected a corrupt communist leader with a history of violence, how TN deliberately chose a party that ranks among the worst in the world in terms of security of women, corruption and public decency; why Bengal went back to a violent party that has failed its people dismally.
Below is my brief view as a Ganita professional currently studying fragility from an Indic and dharmic perspective.
The recent Indian State election results (and the POTUS election)
can be primarily explained as a public response to uncertain times. Am I covid positive? what will happen if I am? How reliable are the vaccines? Will they make a bad situation worse?
In these highly uncertain chaotic times, regaining, even craving for, a measure of certainty and control in every aspect of life is what we seek. It's a modern human tendency. This quest for more certainty among the public manifests in different ways. People will vote for a party that is (or projects itself as) one single entity with one strong local leader and offers more predictability.
Trump lost his re-election because his handling of the Corona pandemic lacked clarity and pushed the US into greater uncertainty. This was apparent in July 2020 itself.
Indian public in these times of lockdowns and broken economies too want a party that offers more certainty and predictability. Of course, there are many other factors that domain experts have pointed out. But a state party that appears as one edifice, one clear leader, and projects a degree of certainty that has gone missing in public lives stands to gain from nervous fence sitters in these times.
TN prefers a known gasbag to a bunch of leaky Oxygen cylinders. The winning leader with his party firmly behind him was preferred to the ruling party that was depicted as a coalition of coalitions riddled with in-fighting and tussles, however good their performance was during these troubled times. Of course, when people elect confident gas bags, they will get predictably bad governance they voted for, which during these covid years will eventually result in more uncertain futures for the people, not less.
The lesson for the next set of Covid-era elections is clear then: The party that brings more certainty into people's lives stands a good chance of winning. A party that brings more certainty along with dharma will also benefit the Rashtra and its people.
